Food Fraud Prevention - ISO 31000 and Likelihood
Welcome! In support of the Food Authenticity Network (FAN), this blog series reviews key topics related to food fraud prevention. Watch here for updates that explore the definitions of food fraud terms and concepts.
This blog post builds on our previous review of the ISO 31000 Risk Management to dive into the risk assessment concept of “likelihood.” The next blog post will review the second half of a risk assessment, which is “consequence.” Likelihood alone is only half of the risk assessment.
For example, the concern about an event with a 5 percent chance of occurring is based on the consequence. A 5-percent chance of stubbing your toe at night may not require you to take any precautions, even as simple as turning on the light (“risk acceptance”). A 5-percent chance of drowning while swimming would lead you to at least wear a life jacket (“risk treatment”) or find another way to cross a river (“risk avoidance”).
To recap, a vulnerability is a type of risk. A risk is determined by the combination of “likelihood” and “consequence.” Remember:
- Risk (ISO 31000): “effect of uncertainty on objectives;
- NOTE 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative.
- NOTE 4: Risk is often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event (including changes in circumstances) and the associated likelihood (2.19) of occurrence.
- NOTE 3: Risk is often characterized by reference to potential events (2.17) and consequences (2.18), or a combination of these.
Then, a type of risk is a vulnerability.
- Vulnerability (ISO 31000 citing Guide 73): “intrinsic properties of something resulting in susceptibility to a risk source (3.3.10) that can lead to an event (3.3.11) with a consequence (3.3.18)."
The likelihood is covered in this blog post, and a future blog post will cover the consequences in detail. It is interesting to examine the level of detail and insight that went into the ISO definitions. The use of “likelihood” even considers the information interpretation of the terms. Specifically, the term “probability” often insinuates a statistical or mathematical determination.
- Likelihood (ISO 31000): “chance of something happening” (Note: yes, that is the exact text) [Reference 1]
- NOTE 1: In risk management terminology, the word “likelihood” is used to refer to the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured, or determined objectively or subjectively, qualitatively or quantitatively and described using general terms or mathematically (such as a probability or a frequency over a given time period).
- NOTE 2: The English term “likelihood” does not have a direct equivalent in some languages; instead, the equivalent of the term “probability” is often used. However, in English, “probability” is often narrowly interpreted as a mathematical term. Therefore, in risk management terminology, “likelihood” is used with the intent that it should have the same broad interpretation as the term “probability” has in many languages other than English.”
Why the Likelihood concept was preferred to Probability
When food fraud prevention was first being considered as a specific concept, some experts estimated it would take five years to complete a formal assessment. This was unacceptable, especially since the GFSI requirements were due in 12 months. It was efficient and supported by ISO 31000 concepts to focus on a “vulnerability assessment” rather than a “probabilistic risk assessment.” A key fundamental concept was to start by focusing on the more informal and qualitative “likelihood” than “probability.”
“ISO 31000 includes a consideration for the preliminary or general assessments that may not require data that is very detailed, accurate, precise, certain, or robust decisions. What is often important is that “a” risk assessment is conducted as long as the specification of the low certainty and low robustness is clearly defined. For food fraud prevention decisions, there may not be a lot of detail needed for a decision, or there may not be details provided (at least not yet).” (Reference 2)
It is very important and of great value that ISO 31000 Risk Management provides a common set of terms that have been created through an international and government-endorsed consensus-based process.
Watch out for the next blog, which will review the application of ISO 31000 Risk Management based on the term “consequence” and the basis for not using “severity.”
If you have any questions on this blog, we’d love to hear from you in the comments box below.
References:
1 ISO 31000 – Vocabulary, definition of ‘Likelihood, URL: https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:31000:ed-1:v1:en
2 Spink, John W (2019). Food Fraud Prevention – Introduction, Implementation, and Management, Food Microbiology and Food Safety series, Springer Publishing, New York, URL: https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9781493996193